In less than 72 hours, the polls will open in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse for a Scottish by-election like no other in recent memory. The Holyrood seat is located in the Central Belt, once unshakeably Labour and now firmly SNP. What makes this by-election so extraordinary is that Reform, a party which has never won an election in Scotland, has come from nowhere to mount a credible challenge to the mainstream parties. The bookmakers have Nigel Farage’s outfit as second-favourite to win on Thursday, and inside Labour and the SNP there are some who fear a drop in turnout and an electorate scunnered with the major parties could hand a narrow victory to Reform.
The likeliest outcome is that the SNP retains the seat. Leader John Swinney has worked hard to repair the party’s prospects after the abrupt departure of Nicola Sturgeon and a disastrous year under her hapless successor Humza Yousaf. If pro-independence voters turn out in sufficient numbers, that should guarantee victory for the Nationalists.
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