Europe

Europe is finally making more TNT

For Europe’s war effort, the time has come for boom or bust. Specifically, it needs more boom. On Monday, Sir Keir Starmer trumpeted the UK’s £1.5 billion investment in six new munitions factories, creating over 1,000 jobs. But we are still miles behind Russia and the rest of Europe when it comes to ammunition. Russia, with assistance from North Korea’s six explosives factories, currently produces over four million artillery shells per year. The European Union and the UK are still collectively trying to drag their production above one million combined. On the front line, this means Russia can fire 12,000 rounds per day, compared with around 7,000 fired by the Ukrainians, according to

Is the UK-EU defence pact a threat to Nato?

The Nato meeting of defence ministers in Brussels today will give its participants an opportunity to discuss the issues facing the alliance in perhaps a more cordial, if frank, manner before the inevitably more theatrical leaders’ summit in The Hague at the end of the month. Much of the focus will be on proposed defence expenditure increases, not least in Britain, where following the publication of the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) this week there were suggestions that Nato would ‘force’ Keir Starmer to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. Next week’s spending review should cast light on how feasible this is, given current plans to reach

Can Germany control its borders?

Two days. That’s how long Friedrich Merz’s signature border policy survived before walking into a perfectly laid ambush. While international economists celebrate Germany’s potential economic resurgence under new leadership, the country’s Chancellor is discovering that electoral victories mean little when faced with opponents who don’t need votes to wield power. The weapon of choice? Legal challenges so precisely timed and coordinated they make Swiss clockwork look amateur. Just as the OECD forecasts Germany’s potential return as Europe’s economic powerhouse, Merz finds himself outmanoeuvred not by coalition partners or opposition politicians, but by advocacy organisations whose resources and coordination capabilities would impress military strategists – opposition far more sophisticated than traditional

Gavin Mortimer

France’s border patrol is playing a losing game

In a 24-hour period at the weekend, 184 migrants were rescued in the English Channel by the French coastguard. The most southerly group that got into trouble was picked up off Fort-Mahon in the Somme Department, and the most northerly were off Dunkirk, more than 80 miles up the coast. The coastguard was also called to incidents in Wimereux and Grand-Fort-Philippe. In other words, it is not just England that is being invaded. So is France, its rugged coastline saturated by thousands of predominantly young men all intent on crossing the Channel. I’ve written before of their violent desperation: the mob who last year attacked a group of hunters who

What Karol Nawrocki’s triumph means for Poland

Karol Nawrocki – the Law and Justice candidate – is the winner of Poland’s 2025 presidential election following a dramatic turn of events. Despite the final exit poll declaring Civic Platform’s Rafał Trzaskowski to be the winner by a margin of 0.6 percentage points, as the votes started coming in over the night, it was Nawrocki who ended up ahead with 51 per cent of the vote. The Law and Justice candidate managed to overcome the odds to become President, but the result will likely be a political standstill that will leave both sides unhappy. The two parties have been at each other’s throats History does not repeat itself, but

The problem with Trump’s Golden Dome project

Donald Trump did not get to where he is today by taking no for an answer. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, could scarcely have been clearer when he visited the White House earlier this month that the President’s notion of Canada becoming America’s 51st state was not even being entertained. ‘Canada is not for sale,’ he said bluntly. When Trump chided him that he should never say never, he mouthed silently, ‘Never, never.’ Undaunted, President Trump has tried a new tack: the proposed Golden Dome, a missile defence system covering the United States which Trump initiated by executive order in January. He announced on his Truth Social platform

Katja Hoyer

Germany’s Bundeswehr bears no resemblance to an actual army

Confusion abounded this week when the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Ukraine could use western missiles to hit targets deep within Russia. ‘There are no more range limitations for weapons delivered to Ukraine. Neither from the Brits, nor the French, nor from us. Not from the Americans either,’ he said. The problem was twofold. Firstly, that is not the official policy of western allies. Secondly, Germany has not provided Ukraine with any long-range missiles. Partly that is a political choice by Germany, but there is also the fact of the inherent weakness of the Bundeswehr itself. Merz’s new government has recognised the limited nature of his military, vowing

Lisa Haseldine

Is a mood shift on Ukraine underway in Europe?

Following years of requests, pleas and false starts, Ukraine has, it appears, definitively been given permission to fire missiles deep into Russian territory. Since the start of Moscow’s invasion in 2022, Kyiv had been banned from attacking military targets on Russian soil with western-made weapons. Now, after three years of war, it appears Ukraine’s allies have indeed decided to allow it to retaliate as it sees fit. The news of the change of tack by Ukraine’s allies came yesterday from Friedrich Merz, Germany’s new chancellor. Speaking at an event in Berlin, the Chancellor revealed that ‘there are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine. Neither by the

Jonathan Miller

Brigitte and Emmanuel – an anatomy of a slap

Some are scandalised that Brigitte Macron was seen to slap her husband in the face as they prepared to disembark from the presidential Airbus, Cotam Unité, in Hanoi this week. Unité? Not so much. The Elysée is asking us to ignore the evidence and pretend it didn’t happen. Still others may say, someone had to.   The slap was seen around the world or was it a shove, a roundhouse punch or just horsing around, disinformation spread by crazy people, as the president himself claims? The detail hardly matters.   Denial notwithstanding, we saw what we saw and lovie-dovey it wasn’t. So what does it tell us about the relationship between the president

Gavin Mortimer

Could France’s next president come from the Yellow Hats?

When Donald Trump first burst onto the political scene in 2016, comparisons were drawn with a 1950s Frenchman called Pierre Poujade. The BBC called him the ‘grandfather of populism’, the first post-war politician to lead a revolt against ‘being told what it is acceptable to think about issues like globalisation, migration and Europe’. Poujade was a provincial shopkeeper who was so fed up with what he saw as the corrupt and degenerate Paris elite that in 1953 he formed his own party, the Union de Defense des Commercants et Artisans. In the legislative elections in 1956, they won 2.4 million votes, enough to send 52 MPs to sit in the

Danes are baffled by Britain’s hatred of second-home owners

Spring has arrived on the North Coast of Zealand, and my fellow Danes are busily scrubbing down their summerhouses for the season. Villages which were nearly deserted during the winter – Danes can generally only occupy their summerhouses for 180 days a year – are gradually filling up. Sadiq Khan said London’s second homeowners ought to pay “much, much more” than a 100 per cent council tax premium Yet I rather doubt Sir Sadiq Khan, who earlier this month said London’s second homeowners ought to pay “much, much more” than a 100 per cent council tax premium, will be on anyone’s prospective guest list. The current war of expropriation on British second

Could the EU sideline Britain in its defence loan scheme?

The Security and Defence Partnership which the government agreed with the European Union this week has had more spin applied to it than a thousand cricket balls. The central argument in its favour, apart from vacuous reiki-like attempts to change the ‘mood’ of relations with the EU, was that it would allow the UK defence sector to engage with the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan instrument providing €150 billion (£127 billion) for defence procurement over the next five years. It does not do that. You would be hard pressed to realise that the partnership has not succeeded in what many saw as its central purpose. Weasel words came in

Starmer has surrendered to the EU

Sir Keir Starmer boldly claimed in the House of Commons this week that his ‘reset’ deal with the EU would ‘release us from the tired arguments of the past’. The truth is that it will do the exact opposite. The country will need to confront yet again tired old arguments which we thought had been resolved. Brexit was all about getting back control of our laws, our borders and our money. A Brexit in which we formally leave the European Union but still follow its laws is senseless. We lose our freedom to choose our laws, and we don’t even have a vote on the shape of the laws which

James Heale

What has reaction been to the UK-EU deal?

18 min listen

Fallout continues from yesterday’s summit and the announcement of a deal between the UK and EU – or is it fair to call it ‘fallout’ as, despite criticism over the deal from Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch, has the public got Brexit fatigue?  James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to talk about the reaction to the deal. Fisheries has taken up most discussion but Michael points out a lesser talked about commitment to energy policy. And, with the government keen to talk about it in tandem with recent deals with India and the US – and Gulf states soon, according to Rachel Reeves this morning – what’s the

Gavin Mortimer

The EU’s power is waning. If only Starmer could see it

Britain is back in the big time. Or at least it is according to Sir Keir Starmer, who was tickled pink with the ‘reset’ relationship agreed with the European Union on Monday. ‘It’s time to look forward,’ declared the Prime Minister, standing alongside the EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. ‘We’re ready to work with partners if it means we can improve people’s lives here at home.’ The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, shared the PM’s delight at a reset she believes will be good for trade, defence and energy. Others weren’t so sure. Reform leader Nigel Farage – Mr Brexit – accused the government of selling out Britain to the

Who was the real winner of Poland’s presidential election?

The latest exit polls in Poland suggest that liberal Warsaw mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, has won the first round of the presidential elections, with 31 per cent of the vote. Trzaskowski is a career politician, the heart-throb son of a jazz musician. He ran on a pro-European platform and has pledged to defend the independence of the judiciary and rebuild Poland’s democratic institutions. He is the candidate for Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, and is seen as a progressive and a ‘moderniser’ who represents a more cosmopolitan and outward-facing Poland. His rival, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, came in second with 29 per cent of the vote. Nawrocki, a historian with very

James Heale

EU-UK reset: ‘brexit betrayal’?

15 min listen

As EU leaders arrive in London for a summit hosted by Keir Starmer, there has been an announcement that the UK and EU have reached a deal. The UK has extended its agreement on EU fishing boats in British waters, while in return fewer checks on British food exports are expected. There have also been discussions about a defence pact, reduced tuition fees for EU students and access to electronic passport gates for British holiday-makers.  While we await further details, deputy political editor James Heale and director of the Centre for European Reform Charles Grant join Lucy Dunn to unpack what we know so far. Will the deal be an

Gavin Mortimer

Could Bruno Retailleau become France’s next president?

Emmanuel Macron appeared on French television last week and spoke for three hours without saying anything of interest. It was a damning indictment of his eight years in office. The country is up to its eyes in debt, ravaged by insecurity and overwhelmed by immigration, but Macron told the country that none of it is his fault. On the contrary, the President scolded the French for being ‘too pessimistic’. The disdain is mutual. A poll conducted in the wake of the President’s interminable television interview found that 71 per cent of the people consider him to be a ‘bad’ president. As to the idea that Macron might stand for re-election

The far right is gaining footholds across Europe

The relentless rise of the populist right in Europe has been confirmed by provisional first results of elections held yesterday in three different countries: Poland, Portugal and Romania. In Poland, there will be a run-off in the second round of the presidential election. This is after Rafal Trzaskowski, the centre-left candidate close to the Civic Coalition government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, was run to an unexpectedly close second place by the ultra-conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the former ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. Ominously for the Left, the third and fourth places were also taken by ultra right-wing candidates, whose votes are now likely to go

Will Gibraltar get in the way of Starmer’s EU reset?

For years, the UK, Spain, Gibraltar and the European Union have been negotiating, on and off, to resolve the complex issue of Gibraltar’s post-Brexit land border with Spain. Now, ahead of next week’s meeting in London when Keir Starmer welcomes EU leaders to discuss a ‘reset’ in UK-EU relations, Spain’s Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, has brought ‘the Gibraltar issue’ firmly back into the spotlight.  Referring to the planned reset, which covers a wide range of issues including defence and security, fishing and British exports, Albares told the BBC’s Newsnight programme, ‘There are many, many things we need to talk [about], Gibraltar included.’ Emphasising that the relationship between the UK and

John Keiger

Britain could pay a big price for Starmer’s ‘EU Reset’

The great ‘EU Reset’ of 19 May – when the first formal UK-EU summit since Brexit will take place – is rapidly approaching. Yet even before Keir Starmer and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen meet in London to thrash out an agreement, advance attempts to sell the new relationship are growing. That so much surrounding Monday’s UK-EU summit in London is being kept secret on either side of the Channel is auspicious ‘UK wins £500m in science grants from EU Horizon scheme after Brexit lockout,’ the Guardian excitedly told its readers earlier this month. It claimed that British scientists were ‘over the moon’ with Britain’s return to the EU’s flagship

Mixed signals for Labour as GDP rises but the rich leave

13 min listen

The Prime Minister is in Albania today to focus on immigration: the government has announced that the UK is in talks to set up ‘return hubs’ with other countries to send failed asylum seekers abroad.  Unfortunately for the government though, also going abroad are Britain’s millionaires. In the cover article for this week’s Spectator, our economics editor Michael Simmons writes that London lost 11,300 dollar millionaires last year alone. These figures run in stark contrast to today’s news that GDP increased by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025. This continues a trend of mixed signals for Britain’s economy.  Also on the podcast Spectator editor Michael Gove discusses his interview with justice secretary

Damian Thompson

Leo XIV’s papacy is off to a surprisingly promising start

Rome In the days before the conclave that elected Pope Leo XIV, traditionalist Catholics were so worried about interference from evil spirits that, according to reliable sources, they arranged for a priest to conduct what’s known as a ‘minor exorcism’ outside the walls of the Vatican. Such ceremonies, which typically involve the sprinkling of holy water mixed with blessed salt, aren’t such a big deal as the major exorcisms of a demon from a person; they are blessings intended to remove Satan’s influence from places where it may occur. But the fact that some clergy in Rome thought the Sistine Chapel might be one of those places reveals the depth